【Welcome大发购彩大厅速发】遍地内幕: 戴尔竞价事件回放, 那些不为人知的事情

Dell Inc. (DELL) today filed a proxy statement, detailing the process leading up its its $24.4 billion buyout proposal from CEO Michael Dell and private equity firm Silver Lake Partners. The proxy also includes details from the companys recent go-shop period, which resulted in nonbinding indications of interest from The Blackstone Group (BX) and Carl Icahn.上周五，戴尔公司（Dell）公布了股东签订的委托书。委托书详尽阐释了首席执行官迈克尔?戴尔和投资基金基金公司银湖资本（Silver Lake Partners）合力班车的总价高达224亿美元的并购契约的揭晓过程。

它还包括了该公司近期拒绝接受“询价”的下文，这轮询价后，戴尔取得了黑石集团（Blackstone Group）和卡尔?伊坎不具约束力的投资意向。The entire package is 274 pages long, and certainly would make a good Friday night read if youre an MA junkie (or, more specifically, a lonely MA junkie). For the rest of you, here is a breakdown of the more interesting cuts:这份文件脚有274页之多。

如果你是个收购爱好者（或者说的清楚点，是个没啥朋友的收购爱好者），那它不会是你周末晚上的绝佳读物。而对其他人来说，想到我们为大家摘的一些精华就不够了：Inception: The first group to approach Michael Dell about a possible buyout was Southeastern Asset Management, the companys largest outside shareholder which has said it plans to vote against the current proposal. That was last June. The following month, a representative of Silver Lake approached Michael Dell at an industry conference to suggest the two sit down. The proxy does not say which industry conference, but Im 99.9% certain it was Fortune Brainstorm Tech in Aspen (where Michael Dell and Silver Lakes Egon Durban both spoke). Michael Dell soon would reach out to another private equity firm (believed to be KKR) for advice, before formally advising Dells lead independent director, Alex Mandl, on August 14. Three days later the entire board was informed and began putting MA infrastructure in place -- including the creation of a special committee.发端：最先认识迈克尔?戴尔，回应无意并购的集团是东南资产管理公司（Southeastern Asset Management），但它仅次于的外部股东回应赞成这一议案。

这是去年6月的事了。7月，银湖资本的一位代表在一个行业会议上寻找迈克尔?戴尔，建议两家公司椅子来商讨。

委托书未解释这是在哪次行业会议上，但我不敢打包票，那就是阿斯彭举行的“《财富》头脑风暴技术大会”（the Fortune Brainstorm Tech conference）（当时迈克尔?戴尔和银湖资本的埃贡?德班都做到了讲话）。此后旋即，迈克尔?戴尔就去求教另一家投资基金基金了（据信是KKR集团）。到了8月14号，他又将这一意向月通报了戴尔重量级的独立国家董事阿历克斯?曼德尔。三天后，董事会全体收到了通报，同时开始搭起收购的基础架构——还包括筹设一个尤其委员会。

Financial mismanagement: The driving force behind the special committee seemed to be less that Michael Dell wanted to buy Dell, and more that Dell management was serially incapable of accurately forecasting company performance. For example, on August 21 the company reported quarterly earnings that were around $300 million less than internal management projections. Overall, Dells revenue came in significantly below management projections for seven straight quarters and, save for one quarter, below consensus analyst estimates. Things got so bad that, at one point, the special committee asked Boston Consulting Group -- which already was advising on strategic alternatives -- to provide independent financial analysis of the companys prospects.财务管理疏于：正式成立这个尤其委员会的主要动力或许不是来自迈克尔?戴尔出售戴尔公司的意向，而更加多是因为戴尔的管理层再三无法精确预测公司的业绩。比如，8月21日公司附上的季度营收要比公司管理层的内部预测要少了大约3亿美元。

总的来说，戴尔的营收早已倒数七个月明显高于管理层的预期，而且除了一个月之外，还广泛高于分析师的预测。情况糟得无以复加，结果尤其委员会不得已一度找来了波士顿咨询集团（Boston Consulting Group）——该集团早已为戴尔的替代性战略获取咨询了——对公司的财务前景积极开展独立国家分析。To be honest, its kind of a wonder that CFO Brian Gladden still has his job. Moreover, if Blackstone Group were to launch a hostile bid, this financial information could be its most effective defense (i.e., current management -- including Michael Dell -- is unfit to run the business). Of course, that would assume Blackstone would be willing to risk its reputation on such an offer, and that it has the financial resources to replace the equity Michael Dell is rolling over as part of the Silver Lake deal (not to mention Microsofts $2 billion loan). Oh, and that it has another CEO in place. Again, the chances of a formal Blackstone bid keep getting smaller the more I think about them.说道觉得的，首席财务官布莱恩?格莱登还能挽回自己这个饭碗也真算奇迹了。再者，假如黑石集团真为想发动蓄意并购，这个财务信息可能会沦为它最有效地的防卫手段（比如，现任管理层——还包括迈克尔?戴尔本人——不合适掌理戴尔公司业务）。

当然，前提是黑石不愿为这个开价甘冒名声被毁的风险，而且能拿得出结论这么多钱来替换迈克尔?戴尔新的投放银湖资本交易的股份（更加别提微软公司（Microsoft）那20亿美元的借款了）。噢，它还有另一个打算走马上任的首席执行官呢。我就越想要就越实在，黑石想要月开价的可能性微乎其微。

This section also must be the toughest for Dell to swallow as a company, since it may make fidgety customers and employees even more nervous. On the other hand, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) may be having a good laugh at its Austin rivals expense.这部分也认同是戴尔最无以拒绝接受的，因为这可能会让它本已焦虑不安的客户和员工显得更为紧绷。另一方面，惠普公司（Hewlett-Packard）有可能也不会对自己这位同在奥斯汀的输掉的大笔支出看笑话。

Pricing: Silver Lake originally proposed a purchase price range of $11.22-$12.16 per share, assuming that Michael Dell would roll his shares into the deal. Kohlberg Kravis Roberts Co. (KKR) also put in a bid for $12-$13 per share, assuming Michaels shares plus those held by Southeastern -- plus a $500 million additional investment from Michael. Important to note that Southeastern was unaware of the KKR offer, and thus was ignorant of its hypothetical role.定价：银湖最初明确提出的收购价是每股11.22-12.16美元，并假设迈克尔?戴尔不会把自己的股份也投放这笔交易中。KKR集团的开价也是每股12-13美元，并假设迈克尔的股份不会再加东南资本持有人的那些股份——再加迈克尔所做到的5亿美元新增投资。值得一提的是，东南资本对KKR的开价并不知情，所以对自己被假设的角色也一无所知。The special committee, however, felt both offers undervalued Dell. Then, on Dec. 3, a Goldman Sachs (GS) analyst suggested that the company might be ripe for a leveraged buyout -- sending Dell stock up 4.4% to $10.06 per share. The next day, KKR dropped out of the process. It told special committee advisor J.P. Morgan (JPM) that its main sticking point was the uncertain PC market and competitive pressures -- two factors validated by Dells recent performance. That same day, Silver Lake raised its offer to $12.70 per share.不过，尤其委员会实在，这两笔开价都高估了戴尔公司的价值。

结果，到了12月3日，高盛集团（Goldman Sachs）的一位分析师似乎，戴尔公司有可能合适做到杠杆并购——这一下子竟然戴尔的股票上涨了4.4%，到了每股10.06美元。而第二天，KKR就解散了并购阵营。它向尤其委员会的顾问摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）回应，妨碍其采行更进一步行动主要有两大原因，一是无法做到的PC市场，二是竞争压力——这也正是两个被戴尔近期的业绩展现出所证实的因素。

就在当天，银湖将开价压低到了每股12.70美元。As the special committee kept pressing for a higher price, Michael Dell kept making his case for going private. He identified four things he would do with a privately-held Dell: (i) Increase RD for the companys enterprise services group, (ii) Hire additional salespeople, (iii) Expand in emerging markets, and (iv) Invest new money into the PC and tablet business. In other words, he wants to create growth rather than strip-and-flip.就在尤其委员会大大施加压力拒绝更高开价时，迈克尔?戴尔却明确提出了私有化的催促。他回应，如果戴尔私有化，他将发售四大措施：(i) 减少公司企业服务集团的研发投放；(ii) 减少销售人员；(iii) 扩展新兴市场；(iv) 为PC和平板电脑业务减少投资。换言之，他是想要让公司业绩快速增长，而不是买入走人。

Then came a Bloomberg news report that Dell was in buyout talks, sending the stock up to $12.29 per share. The next day Silver Lake upped its offer to $12.90, but it was still seemed insufficient. Alex Mandl began talking to Michael Dell about strategic options were Dell to remain public, much of which involved cost-cutting (which was the opposite of Michaels stated vision). Mandl also told Silver Lake that $13.75 was the magic price, but Silver Lake just couldnt get there and threatened to walk. After a few more proposals it got to $13.65 per share, with Michael rolling over his shares at $13.36. This proposal also would allow Dell to continue paying out its dividend -- something it offered to suspend if the offer hit $13.80.随后又传到了彭博社（Bloomberg）的报导，说道戴尔于是以开始全盘并购谈判，这让股价升到每股12.29美元。第二天银湖就将开价提及了12.90美元，但还是过于。

阿历克斯?曼德尔开始和迈克尔?戴尔商量，如果戴尔保持上市公司格局，应当采行什么战略，多数都牵涉到到缩减成本（而这才是和迈克尔早已指出过的愿景背道而驰）。曼德尔还向银湖回应，13.75美元是很极致的价格，但银湖就是不答允，还威胁要解散。几轮博弈论后，收购价提及了每股13.65美元，而迈克尔则以13.36美元的股价投放自己的股份。

这个方案还是能让戴尔之后缴纳红利——而如果收购价超过了13.80美元这就没戏了。In short, the special committee moved Silver Lake from $11.22-$12.16 to $13.65.一句话，是尤其委员会推着银湖把开价从11.22-12.16美元一路提升到13.65美元。

Southeastern math: When the agreement was announced, Southeastern issued a statement saying that $13.65 per share grossly undervalues Dell. It also offered up its own analysis, saying the company is worth at least $24 per share. In private, however, Southeastern said it would be okay with a $14-$15 per share bid so long as it and other large existing shareholders were given the opportunity to roll over a portion of shares. Later in the proxy, the large existing language is dropped in favor of the more inclusive shareholders.东南资本的算法：就在双方协议达成协议宣告之际，东南资本公布了一个声明，称之为13.65美元“相当严重高估了”戴尔公司的价值。它同时还拿走了自己的分析，称之为戴尔每股最少值24美元。不过东南资本称之为，如果戴尔自由选择私有化，那每股14-15美元也是可以拒绝接受的，只要它和其他“现在的大”股东们有机会再行投放一部分股份。

后来在委托书中，所谓的“现在的大”这类措辞被更加笼统的众说纷纭“股东”一词取而代之了。Go-Shop: Evercore Partners contacted 67 different parties during the go-shop, with 10 entering the process. Weve already detailed the end results, but a few interesting tidbits (1) Insight Venture Partners, working with Blackstone, has never held discussions with members of Dell management. (2) As Fortune previously reported, Blackstone threatened to walk away unless Dell agreed to reimburse its out-of-pocket expenses. (3) TPG Capital conducted two weeks of due diligence during the original process, opting not to submit a bid. But it did reappear during the go-shop, working with Blackstone. Unclear why it wasnt part of the final Blackstone bid, but that sure makes it harder for Blackstone to do this deal without Michael Dells shares. (4) Still unclear why the special committee thinks Carl Icahns proposal could result in a superior bid, when it is premised on a dividend recap that the special committee already examined and determined would pose too many long-term risks.询价：在询价阶段，Evercore Partners共认识过67家客户，其中10家最后参予了竞价。

我们已对最后结果做到了详尽报导，但还有一些花边新闻有一点注目：（1）与黑石合作的Insight Venture Partners未曾和戴尔的管理层进行过会晤。（2）《财富》杂志（Fortune）报导过，黑石曾威胁称之为，除非戴尔表示同意补偿现款缴纳的费用，否则就解散竞价。

（3）德州太平洋投资集团（TPG Capital）一开始做到过为期两周的尽责调查，但最后自由选择不开价。但在“询价”阶段它又现身了，和黑石进行了合作。现在还不确切为何黑石最后开价中不还包括它，但这认同让黑石在没迈克尔?戴尔股份的情况下更加无以达成协议这笔交易了。

（4）还不确切为何尤其委员会指出卡尔?伊坎的方案可能会带给最佳开价，它是创建在债务红利上的，回应尤其委员会已做到过详细审查，同时指出它不会带给过多的长年风险。Strip sale talks: During negotiations with Silver Lake, Dell received a call from an undisclosed strategic party, expressing interest in purchasing Dell Financial Services at book value ($3.5b-$4b). Boston Consulting Group examined the proposal, but determined it would not create sufficient value for Dell. Worth noting that another strategic party -- believed to be General Electric (GE) -- signed a joiner to Blackstones non-disclosure agreement, in order to conduct due diligence on DFS. This suggests Blackstone would sell DFS to GE -- a likely point of contention with Michael Dell (yet another reason why Blackstone is unlikely to bid).挤兑谈判：在与银湖进行谈判过程中，戴尔公司收到过一个未知身份的战略投资方的电话，回应无意按照账面价值（35亿-40亿美元）并购戴尔的金融服务业务。波士顿咨询公司（Boston Consulting Group）在审查过该议案后指出它无法为戴尔带给充足的价值。

值得注意的是，另一个战略投资方——据信是通用电气（General Electric）——也和黑石签订了一个保密协议，以对戴尔的金融服务业务积极开展尽责调查。这意味著黑石无意把戴尔金融卖给通用电气——这有可能是与迈克尔?戴尔起争吵的另一个要点（也是另一个为何黑石不太会开价的原因）。

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